Brett Alegre-Wood 0:17
Well, welcome guys another week with the live stream. We’re actually a day late. Unfortunately with this, whatever we do, we aren’t as close we. Yeah. But unfortunately, we had a court case you have to go to the sort of things outside had to put it off, but no welcome. And yet today we’re going to talk about downturn or depression, which will it be? And of course, I think we all agree that it’s going to be more of a downturn and depression. But you just never know, do you? So I guess we’ll have some interesting conversation about that today. And really focusing on I guess, the interest rates and house prices, you know, house prices, really, I mean, we’re not seeing the most of that. That’ll be down the track. But yeah, so today, I’ve got with me, Ryan, Hamamatsu and James. So yeah, guys, what, what’s your thoughts on downturn repression? Let’s let’s get a sort of thing. Are we a downturn as we depressions are we up in the air correction? Correction yet?
Ryan Rahnavard 1:19
Yes, we’re in a correction. I think the main, you know, the depression talk, let’s see, but I don’t think we’re there simply because the fundamentals are property is is hasn’t gone anywhere, in terms of the lack of supply, the huge demand, we can see that, especially in the rental market, at the moment with the way rents have gone up over the past few months. Some places buy a ridiculous amount, yesterday, I was looking at a particular project, which is shared accommodation, purpose built small sort of studios or bedrooms. And they are now renting with all bills included from 14 or 1500 pounds starting going upwards of 18 1900 pounds a month, which is a huge amount of increase. From that alone, I don’t think we’re in for a depression we are in for a correction. And if we also look at the mortgage side of things, a lot more people have got a huge amount of equity left within their properties, which will soften the the amount of properties that will go up for possession and so on and so forth. So I definitely think there’s this correction, I think we’ve already seen the correction in a lot of areas. How much further it will go. I can’t see us falling below 10% at an absolute maximum personally.
Brett Alegre-Wood 2:44
How about you guys?
Himansu Joshi 2:47
I mean, I think I guess it comes down a lot to people and how people deal with all the negative news that they’re hearing their cost of living crisis, how that affects them, I think people are going to slow when I mean, like temperatures now start to go down. Now. There’s always a lag with your bills and stuff like that, when people start actually seeing their bills, what kind of shock are they gonna get? And how is that gonna affect them? Right now it’s Christmas, people are still gonna go and spend buy gifts go out for Christmas parties, but then January, February, March is when I think we’re going to start seeing the real data, and then we that’s gonna be a lag. So really, it’s going to be inspiring to the summer until we actually see what’s going on. And as Ryan touched on, there is still good sense of it in the market in the sense of from an equity perspective, you know, banks have had to be a lot smarter, as we’ve discussed this on the last couple of webinars. So a podcast, that banks have had to be a lot smarter when they come to lend the money out and stuff. So to be fair, I’m going to sit on the fence say, right, there needs to be depression. Yeah, there’ll be some sort of correction. But I think we’re really going to know, until probably middle of next year, towards the end of next year where we’re at.
Brett Alegre-Wood 3:49
Yep. James. Yeah.
James Cox 3:51
Yeah, I’m quite I’m partly in agreement with him. And so I think I’m sort of in on the fence kind of waiting to see, I would say for now, I think it’s going to be a correction. I think there are a lot of factors in there, which, for me, don’t point towards depression yet. I think a big part of that is, you know, the unemployment figures are not as low as they have been in historical depressions. So we’ve got that in our favour. We’ve also got, like I said, the heavy sort of underpinning factor of supply and demand in the major cities where, you know, house prices are still very much holding value. Well. And yeah, I think a big part of it is going to see now we’re going to sort of see over the next few months, depending on how the inflation figures look what the Bank of England, how they’re going to react to it with their monetary policy and where the brakes are probably going. Well, it probably will go up again. We’ll see. So yeah, I’m still on the fence. But for now, I’m going to say I’m going to say correction.
Brett Alegre-Wood 4:48
Yeah. Okay, cool. It’s interesting, actually, because I was just, I haven’t got the article here, but there was an article today in Australia because I’m in Australia right now, and I And it was talking about how they think that house prices will rise 9%. Because based purely on the fact that they think that, whilst there might be a few more rate rises, they think that it’s actually going to come down quite quickly again, which is pretty interesting, you know, to think that already, we’re seeing news coming out that we potentially could have, you know, house prices increasing because interest rates are going to come down. And it’s interesting, I’ll pull out a table in a minute. And when you look at, like all the fear mongering that’s got fear mongering that’s going on. It’s amazing, actually, because when you look at the stats, and and I’ll bring up a table now, and I’ll just show you, so this is the table. And if we have a look. So this is the past few years. And you see the yellow line is anything that’s below 3%. Alright, so we’ve got 3%, you know, 2008 4%, you know, was 2008. Again, yeah. But then when you go fire to get to 5%. And this is base rate. Okay, so you may have been a pay rate above that. But you can see, we’re going all the way back to 2000. If you want to go 6%, you’re going all the way back to 1998. You know, 7%? You’re going all the way back to pre history, if nothing 92. Yeah. And 8% 9%. So you see significant changes in 92. You know, but it’s interesting, because you’ve actually got to go back to get to 3%. Again, you actually have to get back to 1954. Yeah, so you can see this is quite significant. Yeah. I’m not even there yet. I can’t move my mouse quick enough. 70 years ago. Yeah, with it, you don’t see you in 1954. Before you get that Now, interestingly, when you had those sort of rates, you had threes, quite regularly, there’s a few threes in there. And there’s a few I started, I gave up doing the threes, because I realised how many times there was a threes, you know, this is 1906 This dates back all the way back to 1694. I think it is or 1654? You know, you see rates were quite low. So we come through a period whereby, well, we didn’t, but probably my parents did. And, you know, each of you guys parents did, where, you know, rates, you know, we had 10s of percents. You know, back there, the 70s, we got 10s, elevens, 12, we had seven teams there at some point in here, you know, we’ve actually had rates that are really, really low, you know, and to think that 3%, you know, actually is, is quite low in the grand scheme of things, when you only have to get back to get three times that to 9%, you know, to 9090 92? So it’s interesting, you know, whilst we’re sitting here going, Oh, shit, you know, interest rates quite high. Actually, when you look at the grand scheme of things, interest rates are actually historically very low. I mean, I, you know, we’re talking about my book, I keep saying this three books. One thing, you know, we do mortgage cost averaging 6%. Well, we’re only Now getting back to 6% pay rate on some of my mortgages. And it’s interesting, cuz I’ve been doing quite a few portfolio reviews with clients. And a lot of them fix their rates. So they’re rated tools. So, you know, 1.74 2.73% 3.25, and a fixed, like, you know, one’s got seven year fix, I was looking at two hours, it’s quite interesting, because most of his portfolio, he can sit back and totally sums because he’s not really worried. You know, there are a lot of people who have fixed their rates. That’s bad in one respect, because it means that actually, we need to raise rates higher to have a bigger effect. But yeah. Yeah. So it’s interesting from that perspective, but any thoughts on interest rates for you guys? What’s your what’s your gut feel? I mean, we sort of mentioned we sort of predicting breaks go higher rates come down. Do you think that it’s the Australian news article? Where rates are going to come down next year? What are your thoughts?
Himansu Joshi 9:12
We’re only that we’ve been seeing and hearing from brokers that we’ve spoken to, they’re confident that by the middle of next year, something to say even earlier, earlier, the year that we expect to get down to, you know, 4% base rate, and it’s probably going to sit there then or there abouts for the next year, year and a half, maybe even two years. And I think maybe even the days of very, very low interest rates might be gone for quite a while but even seeing a 4% with where inflation is where the red sites still. Yes, it’s a good position. Yes.
Brett Alegre-Wood 9:44
And, you know, we’ve said it before, you know, as the rates increase the margin, the banks may will start to, you know, real small start to rationalise. So, I think you know, even though we’re going to see that right now, we’re probably paying and because of the unknown, we don’t know where they’re going to get to but you You know, I’m not as worried about it. I mean, I’ll be honest with you, I hadn’t fixed any of my rates. Part of that was because I was too bloody busy doing other stuff. And I but part of it was also that actually, there’s 10 or so properties there that I was going to get rid of that I just did crappy areas that I don’t think ever gonna go. And you know, as I say, you know, never never sell with the Asterix mark. And the Asterix is never sell well, this fundamentals will these places, I feel don’t have fundamentals. So I’d rather just flick them off and get rid of them. Even though actually now the rents are going up and have been going up, which is quite good. You know, we really are. And now we’re really having to push those rents because the mortgage has gone up, we want to try and get the landlords back into a profitable position, because a lot of them aren’t in profit positions necessarily, certainly on properties they’re bought more recently. But yeah, yeah.
Ryan Rahnavard 10:53
And that’s exactly why there’ll be a correction as well, again, bro, with this mortgage interest rate, as you rightly said, there are a lot of people ask the Olympics rates. And in these sort of high interest rates, if you like, Well, when I say high high compared to what we’ve been used to over the past 1015 years, you have, you’re going to have a proportion of people that will want to sell their properties, but simply either won’t put it on the market, because they’re not going to get the value that they need to sell it at the value that they need to sell it.
Brett Alegre-Wood 11:24
So yeah, keep talking, that was me stuffing Yeah,
Ryan Rahnavard 11:27
they’re not going to get the value that they’re going to get. So those properties aren’t going to come into the market your buyers out there. On the second, I’m going to talk second hand market, because I truly do believe we have now more than ever gone into to two completely separate markets between the second hand market and the new bull market, the second hand market will probably see a big, big sort of hit from because he’s got a couple of, you know, aspects, interest rates and stuff is one side of it. The other side of it is the EPC. And, you know, the whole push for more energy efficiency, green houses, green housing, and so on and so forth. A lot of properties will not fit within that bracket. So those properties will take that big hit. And a lot of people will think to themselves that they’re going to pick up a massive bargain in the secondhand market, not calculating the amount of money that they need to spend there. But nevertheless, I’m digressing a bit here, I think it will be it will be a sort of a small correction because very quickly, the Bank of England will have to react, the government will have to react to get the property market stimulated, again, people to go out there and spend and purchase properties because the government needs landlords Believe it or not as much as they might come out into the market and say, hey, now we need more homeowner occupiers actually need more landlords, because there’s a lot of people out there that don’t earn the income or don’t have the deposits that are required to purchase their own house. But they need properties to rent that to rent. And if the if there’s less properties out there to rent, these rents right now are even going to get even crazier and higher, which will cause a whole new set of problem. So I think it’ll be very short live six months to a year maximum of the high interest rates. I mean, it’s interesting what what a difference that he did it 30 days makes 30 days ago, you were looking at interest rates of around 7%. Today, Aldermore have released a package at 5.23% as a big, big drop in a matter of 30 days. And I think it’s only going to continue to come down with downward direction.
Brett Alegre-Wood 13:32
And it’s interesting, but that’s what we’re talking about where, you know, base rate going up. But now, the markets rationalising back where they can make the money they need to make, you know, so. And I think too, there is, you know, there’s there’s schools or camps now that are coming out and saying interest rates are going to be dropping. I mean, it’s bloody hard to predict business, you know, how do you know, but is it so it’s just gonna pick up on one thing? You and I think it was an article you sent through James, so I’ll let you speak about it as Steve and uh, but just about the infrastructure one, and the Chancellor, you know, keeping the HS two.
James Cox 14:08
Brett Alegre-Wood 14:10
Oh, shit. What have I done? I’ve lost the bloody earlier method across too quickly. Too far. Yeah. So you know, we’re not, I guess, you know, this one year, we’re not we’re not cancelling the HS two, which is great news.
James Cox 14:27
Yeah, I mean, it’s a big thing, because it’s one of the biggest capital projects probably anywhere at the moment that’s being delivered. And the the other side of that delivery is a huge amount of money into the economy. So whilst temporarily I guess, from a government point of view, yeah, they’re saying they would save money if we counted it. They know the long term benefits of it are also much worth much more worthwhile. And we’ve seen from a property point of view and how much money that will bring into the economy, how much business that will encourage how much you know movement of people and and the transport connect, connectivity will massively improve. So it will do wonders not just for Birmingham, but for other parts of the Midlands for London for everywhere it’s going to go. So yeah, overall, I think they’re right, you know, they should be backing it, they shouldn’t be sticking to it and allowing it to happen. So yeah, completely agree to that.
Brett Alegre-Wood 15:23
And I think anytime you want to pull the country out of recession, what do you do you invest in infrastructure, you invest in housing, you know, so the moment you cancel the HS two, as much as it is ridiculous how much it’s costing, and how much the budget was originally, or the quote was announced, is blown out to three, four or five times whatever, who knows what we’ll end up with, actually does keep a lot of people employed. It does keep a lot of paychecks going in every month, which is what you need, you know, whether it’s building a railway, or building a house, you know, that’s the stuff that you want to do during a recession to stop you from, you know, the low lows, you know, yeah. And so just coming in here, Ryan, you were chatting about the rising interest rate? No, no, actually, I sorry, not that one. It’s this one, the five year or the I think you’re talking about mortgage rates, you know, I mean, interest rates coming down. But this is actually the five year mortgage rates, if you have a look at him, you know, first of December 21 is the first blue line, then, you know, 21st of September, I can let you talk about that anyway. But yeah,
Ryan Rahnavard 16:35
the thing right it the rates have actually recently, this morning, received an email from the so I’ve got a financial reporter. So it’s, it will report every morning where interest rates are out with every every bank, and just this morning, Aldermore released a two year discounted rate at 5.23. For residential mortgages, now that you know that that is that is a huge, huge drop. And ultimately, they they’re gonna need to lend out money because you know, money needs to be circulated and moved around. I don’t know if they’ve updated it on there. I thought I’d see if now, it’s on the financial reporter. But yeah, so interest rate mortgage interest rates will, we’ll have to come down at some points and lending and borrowing in general, because I don’t think they are going to be able to control this inflation with just simply increasing the base rate, because everyone out there, apart from the politician seems to know that this inflation is beyond just the reckless printing of money. It is a supply chain issue. There is a there is an issue of getting stuff out of China at the moment with the stupid zero COVID policy. And let’s see how much longer this guy can survive as to the uprising has already started. Yeah, so So once everyone sort of gets a bit smarter here and says, well, actually hold on, you know, these are the issues. Did, did Brexit have have a have an impact on on inflation in the UK? You know, getting things across the border over here? Once people start realising these things and say, Hey, hold on a minute. All we actually need to do now is give people the ability to go out and purchase this stuff, because the prices were the prices. And let’s be frank, how many times will you see something that’s 20 quid now in five years time, if inflation is dropped, it goes below 20 pounds, it probably won’t be because that’s the base, it will just be it hasn’t increased that much higher than the 20 that than the 20 quid for that item. And, and, you know, borrowing is going to just continue to increase. I mean, it was crazy. The other day I saw I think, was it deliver Roo, or UberEATS, has introduced collana, which is you can pay for stuff over three monthly payments. So to order your food, you can now split it over a payment plan. Now Jesus Christ, what kind of well the again to that the burger and chips and the fish and chips, this three month payment plan,
Brett Alegre-Wood 19:19
you’ll only be happy for they say, hey. But the reality is, is that a lot of this sort of stuff is I mean, this is getting off the topic of house price isn’t that but I think it’s important to raise is, you know, technology now is making it possible to do micro payments to do all these sort of things that actually you can do three month payments, because you’ve got the ability to charge their credit card over that period, you know, and that and it’s a very easy facility and the costs are coming down. You know, the mercial facilities and things like the great thing is you’ve got say, you know, I mean as much as crypto might be a dirty word in a lot of people’s minds. You know, right now, actually the technology that’s going into crypto, and not just not just sort of a Bitcoin and Aetherium and that, but actually there’s a lot of different ways to talk to ripple, you know, I could rattle off 10 different places in 10 Different Kryptos. And you can get caught up in the Bitcoin anti establishment, you can get caught up in the, you know, all that sort of FTX you know, Sam bank and free and all that stuff. But I think the reality is, if you step back from that, and you actually look at the technology, and the advances in technology, that they’re entering that field, it is bloody amazing. I mean, every morning I get a, an AI focused, like, it’s a future, it’s called Future loop. And, and it’s, it’s awesome, because it tells you about what’s changing in the world, on a daily basis, it’s updating you with trends and technologies and AI. And, you know, we talked about Skynet, you know, taking over the world, and all that sort of stuff, and you know, Terminator, but the reality is, is that, as much as there’s that fear base of that, there is some amazing things happening. And, you know, from telemedicine through to, you know, being able to track your genomes, being able to, you know, know what you shouldn’t shouldn’t be eating, taking supplements, you know, that’s gonna help just in the health field, then you get transportation, and then you get the, it’s amazing what’s going on. And actually, you know, getting back on the subject of, you know, the property side. Actually, there is a lot of stuff happening right now that you will own nothing and be pretty happy. You know, now, whether you whether that’s, you know, a good thing, or whether you should be owning stuff, look, you know, I have mobile phone here. And that mobile phone, I don’t own it, well, I actually do on this one, but only because it off now. But basically it for the most part, I just buy it as part of a plan, and I paid off the plan. You know. And that’s how I think, you know, for me, that’s my experience of you’ll own nothing. And, you know, so there is the conspiracy theory, of course, is experiencing theory. But we probably won’t get into that too much now, because you go down a rabbit hole that you never come out of.
Ryan Rahnavard 22:18
Sight, you touched on it, you know, technology, the improvements of it, with education now as well up out there available for people more and more people are educated about money in general. So again, another reason why I don’t think we’re going to go into a depression, it will be a correction, because people will sit there and say, Okay, I can’t sit here and cry about it, I have to do something, what is that going to be is it going to be property stocks, shares this, this, that that whatever works for them, whatever fits their lifestyle. And I think property in general is something which people will always generally trust, because you hold something at the end of the day. And it’s something that is that is that is actually there. And the once people understand that taboo of debt, you know, not wanting to take on debt, because it has this word data associated to it, is dying off because people are trying to remember it, you spoke about in your book about good debt and bad debt, and so on, it’s over. So these sorts of things, more and more people understand, which will allow them to now instead of being scared and sitting back and not doing anything, they will actually continue to do once they get their head around. Okay, if interest rates are 6%, how do I make this strategy and property work? What’s the what’s the one that’s going to work and I think that’s what will keep the property market going. I mean, big pension funds are still buying product blocks of property in the UK outright without flinching, you know, and they’re paying some ridiculous prices for some of these apartments. And we’re about to launch that property in Manchester, him. And so it was the name of the project in Manchester, we’re about to launch him and the developer pool the last minute, match the garden.
Brett Alegre-Wood 24:01
Just recently, something like
Ryan Rahnavard 24:03
that, Paul, why? Because a pension fund bought it paid way over the yacht for it as well.
Brett Alegre-Wood 24:10
But that’s happening a lot. And the reality is the pension funds, what they need is a steady return over a long period of time. So actually, they don’t really care too much about what they pay for it. I mean, they do, but they don’t really. And that is why when, you know, generally will be negotiated on a site. And then a pension fund will come in and just go and we don’t, we can’t even compete. And in fact, most of the developers when we speak to them, they just say that we’re talking to a pension fund. You know, we’re heads of terms in place, and we’re just like, yeah, enjoy, see you later. You know, if it falls over come back to us. But it’s not even worth as trying to assert why we’re a better choice we might get the more money we might do this. The reality is, you know if we’re going to sell 50 properties in a development 100 properties and development that might take us six months to do, where it’s not coming and go, there’s a check today bank, go build it out, you know, and that’s that is, in its essence the bill to rent marketplace. And for me, that is why the section 24 changes come in. You know, I know, what’s his name, Ed and ex Chancellor George bloody Osborne. You know, he said, it’s about levelling the playing field. Yeah, no, screw that. No, it’s about handing that marketplace over to the big pension funds, and try and attract that billionaire money, you know, and that corporate money, not helping out the mums and dads who are trying to sort their pension out. You know, I mean, we’ve got, we can go, we’re going down the rabbit hole there. Because, you know, I’m quite emotive about a lot of this stuff, because I deal with it on a day to day basis when I’m dealing with clients. And you guys do too. We have clients who you set out and rents are, you know, their rents have gone up, their capital values have gone up, but I remember a time when they used to double every seven or 10 years, there was an assumption, but pretty much that’s what would happen. Well, that certainly change now. Now, the best areas that’s happening in and the worst areas are getting nothing. So yeah, but better, so better to, you know, recession or downturn. I mean, I think there is an element of we could go into a deflation, I think, you know, if you go to someone like Cathy wood, now look, Cathy’s copter hiding, and her Ark Investment Fund is Cat copter hiding. But you know, one of the issues going on with is talking about how we could be in deflation. You know, that it’s not actually inflation is the problem. It could be deflation. And there’s a lot of basis for this. My challenge with her is what’s you know, I think great, you know, fantastic. I think, actually, her timing sometimes is off now. You know, she runs a billion pound fund, we haven’t quite got a billion pounds worth of property yet. Or we’ve sold a billion pounds. No, not a billion every. Now we haven’t. Now we have an ability pass? Oh, no, actually, I think we have a we have 1000 We have yet we’ve sold a billion pounds. So you know, but but the reality is, is that, you know, I think she her opinion is an opinion, that does get a lot of weight, it is getting more white now. So whereas before, it was definitely going to be depression, definitely going to be a downturn. Now. It seems to be we’re easing off. But how many times we do that? You know, they come in with all the 30% drops Bank of England, you know, 30% drop, you know? And of course, then we find out that it’s not 30% Drop, it goes up, you know, so it’s hard to tell right now what to do, isn’t it? But I guess what, what are you like, what are you guys hearing from clients? Now? What’s What’s the general sort of feel out there? Because you’re on the on the phone everyday to clients?
Himansu Joshi 28:02
Yeah, I think it’s the same, same. Two things we’ve spoken about last couple of weeks is interest rates. And once you educate them, and then you show them what’s happened, you know, back in 2008, back in 1991, where interest rates were there, you know, house prices dropping, you show the what actually will happen, then when interest rates were, you know, the factors that affected that cost of living crisis? I think those are the three main things. James, anything else you got to add?
James Cox 28:29
Yeah, I think you’ve got most people’s nature is generally to be quite fickle. And that is, unfortunately, because of the way the news and the media is programmed. Do you focus on the here and the now. So it is difficult for people to zoom out and have things put in perspective to like what they meant to said how interest rates were, you know, pre 2008, because we were coming from a high interest rate environment then. So it’s easy for people to forget. So once you do actually lay out on the table and actually explain to them, okay, this is why this is happening. This is why this is happening. Now, this happens, this and this and this should happen. So, you know, you do get some people who, you know, with a bit of logic and a bit of education can start to see it and understand it better. But then there are some people who were just like, they can’t get out of that bubble of that negativity. And, you know, that’s just the way some people are you can’t change that.
Himansu Joshi 29:22
And they’re the same people with it didn’t do anything over the last 12 years when interest rates. So there was always something right. There’s always there’s always a reason.
James Cox 29:31
Yeah, you’ve got people who can say, you know, I mean, there’s obviously different situations, you can’t sort of label it absolutely. One thing people genuinely do have personal reasons for not being able to invest and we understand that that’s, that’s one of those things, you can’t you can’t, but if there are reasons which are holding you back, which are not influencing or not impacting your personal finances and the need and the goal is still very much there. There’s clearly something which is holding you there’s a good barrier there. And that’s where you’ve got to, you know, get deeper into that conversation to get that out to actually identify the problem, and then work through that with them.
Brett Alegre-Wood 30:10
And a real problem, I think, when you when you do sit down with people, and you rather just look at the current situation, so actually listen to the 10 year timeframe, actually, when you run the numbers, and when you look at the history, and you look at all that stuff, it even by now holds up pretty well. And even if you see the drop, if you’re buying into good areas, and that’s the real big thing now is you have to have those fundamentals. You know, we’ve been saying this for years, and we say repeatedly, you know, if you bought into a shit area, then you might, you know, well, if you bind to a ship area, you have to go after the yield. And forget the capital growth. And I know that there’s a lot of property available out there, we could get hundreds of properties to sell. And in there’s big commissions in them, and they’re really juicy, and they look fantastic. The problem is, is that you end up buying them and you end up, you know, if you get the capital or the the income great, if you don’t, which is more likely. Yeah, that’s where it sort of falls a bit. I mean, it’s one of the reasons we’ve changed. And we’ve just stuck to the the London’s of Manchester, Birmingham, and the major cities that there is a lot of growth in which we’re still seeing, you know, great rental growth. You know, we’re still seeing people leaving in actual fact now where people jump out within a person and move straight back in, which is great.
James Cox 31:32
JLL actually predicted that for next year, Manchester, Birmingham, I think Liverpool will still grow not by a huge amount, a couple of percent, that’s still because of how strong the rental market is, because the fundamentals of the area, because of the younger supplier, the occupancy rates, all those things, they still predict that there’s good potential there. That’s pretty,
Ryan Rahnavard 31:55
that’s all you need. That’s all you need, you only need a couple of percent every year, there’s compounded growth. If you just do three 4% 123 4%. And then during the good times, you get a couple of years of double digit growth, all of a sudden, you’ve 10x your money after her after you know, 1015 years and the money that you’ve actually physically invested into the thing. Hey, rent bills, as well as crazy. I was speaking to a client yesterday, so he bought a property or flats in Birmingham in Digbeth. Now, Digbeth is massively undervalued, and it’s going to need a lot of regeneration. And it’s interesting actually, one of them bought a an apartment through us in central Birmingham, where it was more developed, he wanted something a lot more safe and secure. It didn’t want the whole regeneration story and stuff. And then the other one, the girlfriend purchased in the regeneration. So the golfer listened to me a little bit more than him. And he called me so he goes, have I been done over here, mate as that now what do you mean? Said because she’s getting 1100 for a one bedroom apartment. And I’m getting 750 For my one. And we’re only 10 minutes apart from our my area’s much nicer said, Well, that’s because she’s going into regeneration area that and I told you the whole tech Valley and everything that’s going to push rents up and you got you went for the safe and steady and you’re safe and steady. We’ll give you a safe and steady and that’s what you’re getting. You’re safe, you’re safe and steady. And she’s got a regeneration area, which was always going to outperform because it should massively bought at a big discount because of the area and so on and so forth.
Himansu Joshi 33:30
Rather, we’re selling it two years ago with the rents that we had on the one bed 850 808.
Brett Alegre-Wood 33:39
Yeah, it’s either Yeah, we stuffed up did normally we should be predicting the future. But no, I mean, it’s interesting. That’s one thing we’ve done for a long time has always been realistic with rents and things like that. Because, you know, historically, we used to have, we guaranteed all the rents that we put on there. So we have to be conservative, you know, but it’s amazing scene, you know, when places do rent, when regeneration kicks in, it does bloody fantastic things. And actually, we should maybe let’s do a bit on regeneration next week, because I think there is still a lot of investment in certain areas. And there’s a lot of regeneration going on. So you’re things like the Liverpool waterfront there, you know, you’ve got, you know, I mean, it’s like anything that Taylor those two stories is a tale of you had one area that had a lot of stock coming on at the same time. And so that pulled the rents down or held the rents down, and they had a shortage of stock in the region area. Good stuff. And you’re right, it’s only 10 minutes down the road, you know, so we could see that but of course, it’s that was the established market that was a safe, the secure the unknown. I know that name. That’s, that’s closer to the city centre, you know, but it changes all around, you know, over time and that’s, that’s part of you know, knowing your market. So that’s why we sort of, you know, focus on those markets and you know, know them really well and know the areas At the I think the important thing is not knowing what the area, the best areas now, knowing what the best area is in two, five years time, and getting in there early, because that’s where you get the uplift in the rents and capital values. And I think that’s the real, you know, the, the tricky, tricky, not just not tricky, that’s the wrong word. That’s the skill in what we do, is actually being able to get out there, meet with developers have lunches with developers, you know, find out what the markets doing chats, you know, and just getting a sense for that, and adding all that up and going, Hey, that’s going to mean, you know, growth. You know, so yeah. Cool. I think, you know, we’ve sort of done, obviously, we have to do a good point, because I know we got to race off. But yeah, I think that’s all we’ve got for today. Is there anything else? You guys wanted to chat with any final sort of thoughts? Come on. Come on in. Australia. Just say we’re in the 16. Again, I’m very happy. So again, again. 2000 and sets of eight. Come on. I was there. I was there in Kaiser slough. When we played out we got ripped off by the Italians at that time, or I wonder if we get ripped off or the agent idiots. And the funny thing is, the Italian of God might come and be Italians went on to win the whole tournament. They you know, and they ripped us off. So and now we’re playing Argentina on Sunday. That yes, either we get ripped off and
James Cox 36:38
they go. Are you saying are you saying Australia the kingmakers, then
Brett Alegre-Wood 36:47
I see England’s done pretty well. We’ll see how that you know.
Ryan Rahnavard 36:52
I think today we’re gonna have our bogey team kicked out at a World Cup. Hopefully, all being well, Germany will get some pack in home on their throne. Yep. So we’ll see how they’ll, we’ll see how they’ll get on.
Brett Alegre-Wood 37:06
I should do quite well, because I’ve obviously got I’ve got one of these. And Ozzy passport. And I’ve got one of these as well. So I’m alright. So hopefully both staying. Good fun. Yeah. Cool. All right, guys. Yeah, well, we’ll catch up next week. And we haven’t thought much about regeneration, just maybe get into some of the areas that we think are going, you know, that are the next sort of hotspots now. Because I think that’s, that’s one of the keys is if you can pick the areas next year, you know, for the next year, you can actually skip the whole recession. Just go you know, brush it off, because you’re in an area where whatever the price is doing, it’s getting lifted by the change in fundamentals and the investment going there, which I think is important. So yeah, that can be an expense. I guess. I’d love to know what scares he’s just jumped on now up just as we’re ending. But yeah, now guys. Well, yeah. Thanks very much again, as usual, and we’ll see you next week.